The top picks outside of lane to counter Swain include Kalista, Xayah, and Sivir. These are all good at countering Swain with high win rates over 59%. Even if these Swain counter picks are not taken in the same position as you, it's not a good idea to take him into one of these matchups. They will most often crush Swain.
Conversely, if the opposite team choses either Elise or Jarvan IV, Swain mains should seriously think about taking him, as he easily beats these champs with win rates over 56% against each ofthem.
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